S&P 500 Registers its Biggest Monthly Gain Since July 2022

Monthly Client Update | December 1, 2023

Monthly Market Summary

  • The S&P 500 Index gained +9.1% in November, slightly underperforming the Russell 2000 Index’s +9.2% return. Ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors traded higher, with only Energy trading lower as the price of oil declined -6.2%. 
  • Corporate investment-grade bonds produced a +7.5% total return as yields declined, outperforming corporate high-yield bonds’ +4.9% total return. 
  • International stocks underperformed U.S. stocks for a second consecutive month. The MSCI EAFE Index of developed market stocks gained +8.2% and outperformed the MSCI Emerging Market Index’s +7.8% return.

 

Stocks Trade Higher as Treasury Yields Reverse Lower

The big story during November was the decline in Treasury yields. The bond market experienced large moves in interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.36% from over 5% in October. For context, the -0.54% decline in the 10-year yield ranks among the biggest 1-month drops since December 2008, when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by -0.75%. Falling Treasury yields provided relief to bonds, which have traded lower as the Federal Reserve hikes rates. The Bloomberg U.S. Bond Aggregate Index, which tracks a broad index of U.S. bonds, produced a +4.6% total return. It was the index’s first gain in seven months and its biggest gain since 1985.

The decline in yields helped the stock market rebound after trading lower for three consecutive months. The S&P 500 recorded its biggest monthly gain since July 2022 and currently trades less than 5% below its all-time closing high. The NASDAQ 100 Index gained +10.8% as mega-cap growth stocks such as Microsoft, Apple, and NVIDIA traded toward new all-time highs. Technology was the top-performing S&P 500 sector as the rally in growth stocks propelled the sector to a new all-time high. Real Estate followed close behind, benefiting from falling interest rates that provided relief to property owners. Defensive sectors, including Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Health Care, lagged as the market traded higher.

Investors Encouraged by the Market’s Resilience to Higher Interest Rates

Investors are optimistic as the U.S. economy continues to exceed expectations. Third-quarter GDP growth was recently revised higher to 5.2%, the strongest since Q4 2021. While unemployment sits at a 21-month high of 3.9%, it remains low by historical standards. The pending home sales index recently fell to the lowest level since 2001, but the decline appears to be linked to limited supply rather than weak demand. The S&P 500’s earnings grew year-over-year during the third quarter, the first time since Q3 2022. Inflation pressures have eased significantly, and investors expect multiple interest rate cuts in 2024. There is a growing sense that the Federal Reserve has accomplished its mission of lowering inflation without tipping the economy into a recession. The market will be watching closely to see if the strength carries into 2024.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Definitions

Annualized Return: The rate at which an investment grows each year over the period to arrive at the final valuation.
Bear Market: A decline of at least 20% from the market’s high point to its low.
Beta: A measure of how an individual asset moves when the overall stock market increases or decreases.
Correlation: A measure of the extent to which two variables are related.
Dividend Yield: The dividend yield or dividend-price ratio of a share is the dividend per share, divided by the price per share. It is also a company’s total annual dividend
payments divided by its market capitalization, assuming the number of sharesis constant.
Developed Markets: A country that is most developed in terms of its economy and capital markets. The country must be high income, but this also includes openness
to foreign ownership, ease of capital movement, and efficiency of market institutions.
Emerging Markets: A country that has some characteristics of a developed market but does not fully meet its standards. This includes markets that may become
developed marketsin the future or were in the past.
GrowthFactor Stocks: Growth stocks are companies expected to grow sales and earnings at a fasterrate than the market average.
LargeCap Stocks: Shares of publicly traded corporationswith a market capitalization of $10 billion or more.
LTM: An acronymfor”Last Twelve Months”or the past one year.
NTM:An acronymfor”Next Twelve Months” or the next one year.
Price Return: The rate of return on an investment portfolio, where the return measure takes into account only the capital appreciation of the portfolio, not including
income generated in the form of interest or dividends.
Total Return: Return on a portfolio of investmentsincluding capital appreciation and income received on the portfolio.
Small Cap Stocks: Small-cap stocks are shares of companieswith a market capitalization of less than $2 billion.
Standard Deviation: In statistics, the standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of values. A low standard deviation indicates the
valuestend to be close to the historical average of the data set, while a high standarddeviationindicatesthe current value is outside of the historical average range.
Value Factor Stocks: Stocksthat are inexpensive relative to the broad market based on measures of fundamental value (e.g., price to earnings or price to book).

Disclosures and Legal Notice

DISCLAIMER:

Futures, stocks and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The valuation of futures, stocks and options may
fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The impact of seasonal and geopolitical events is already factored into market prices. The
highly leveraged nature of futures trading means that small market movements will have a great impact on your trading account and this can work against you, leading to
large losses or can work for you, leading to large gains.

• If the market moves against you, you may sustain a total loss greater than the amount you deposited into your account. You are responsible for all the risks and financial resources you use and for the chosen trading system. You should not engage in trading unless you fully understand the nature of the transactions you are entering into and the extent of your exposure to loss. If you do not fully understand these risks you must seek independent advice from your financial advisor. All trading strategies are used at your own risk.

• Any content on TradesTrending.com should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. It is your responsibility to confirm and decide which trades to make. Trade only with risk capital; that is, trade with money that, if lost, will not adversely impact your lifestyle and your ability to meet your financial obligations. Past results are no indication of future performance. In no event should the content of this correspondence be construed as an express or implied promise or guarantee.

• TradesTrending.com is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using any of our trading strategies. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions or technological issues may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as “spread” or “straddle” trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. Information provided in this correspondence is intended solely for informational purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

Disclaimer

• None of the content published on TradesTrending.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter.

Free newsletter

Market Research & Analysis

 

By submitting your information you agree to our Terms of Service and our Privacy Policy